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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It often serves as a form of apology. Sorry we misjudged your team in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the biggest turnaround receives the award. However, it creates an annual debate about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or simply the biggest upset.

But the current field is distinctly different. The list of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference winners fading and recent underperformers improving collectively. During an normal season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's facing several other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the ideal vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to create big plays out of nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this is not a normal campaign!

The area where his case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a given after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still